Brandt Welker

The archive

Essays

Writing on healthcare technology, systems, and incentives — some new, some republished from earlier work with its original date. Roughly one a month.

2026
Systems

Steidle's Law

An admiral who ran the Joint Strike Fighter fly-off taught me one rule about politics: every two years, hand the people who funded you a win they can take credit for. Miss the cadence and a better plan loses to a good one that delivers.

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Systems

The Next Person Who Touches It

I spent the '90s fixing Mercedes door locks that someone else broke. Every design decides who pays when the next person touches it, and the good ones admit the trade.

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AI

Open Weights Is a CapEx Decision

Everyone argues open versus closed on quality. Put a volume axis on the cost chart and it becomes a capital decision, and I'd guess most companies are too small to make it.

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Systems

Pick Your Own Referee

If the person asking for approval gets to choose who approves, you don't have a control. You have a signature, and an audit trail of preferences.

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AI

Written in Blood

Aviation’s safety rules mostly came after the crashes. That’s how the safety regimes that actually work got built, and a lot of AI policy is trying to skip the step that made them work.

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AI

Judge the Labs by What They Build

The AI story everybody tells comes from a movie the machines lose. The one that actually happened is about a shared package cache, a missing air gap, and who signs for what the agents did.

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Healthcare

A Reimbursement Machine in a Business Costume

Almost every real business knows what its product costs. Healthcare mostly doesn't, and that's on purpose: knowing the cost would expose the spread that everybody in the chain is living on. The first provider to name its real number is going to get flooded with business.

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AI

Moravec Inverted: 500 Million Years of Pretraining

The things that feel effortless, like seeing, walking, and knowing who's in the room, feel easy because they're the most optimized things you have. Evolution was the pretraining, and the machines inherited the wrong five thousand years of it.

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Systems

The Second Law Is Undefeated

Every lever has an inverse, and nobody has beaten the second law. AI is a massive lever, so the bill is out there somewhere. The people who worry me are the ones convinced there isn't one.

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Systems

Price the Wait, Not Just the Work

Postponing work looks like weakness. Priced correctly, it’s buying an option, and the more expensive mistake is finishing something just because you started it.

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AI

Nobody in the Extinction Debate Has Done a Drill

A generation lived for decades beside a technology that really could end everything, and built hotlines and treaties instead of panicking or pretending. The AI risk debate talks as if this is the first time.

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AI

Read the Deviation Card

Every airplane compass is a little wrong, and every airplane carries a card saying by how much. Nobody is going to ship a neutral AI model, so that card is the standard we should be asking for.

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Systems

Building 30

Thanks to an office remodel, I spent September 11th in Mission Control, the one room built so somebody can read a signal and know what it means. My wife called me twice that day, and I misread both calls.

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Incentives

Absorbing Scope Teaches the Org That Scope Is Free

Every unpriced "can you also" teaches people that change costs nothing, and every role you refuse to fund ends up built on whoever is standing closest. You can keep saying yes. Just stop hiding the bill.

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AI

Stop Auditing the Phrases

AI watermarks are shipping this month, and everyone is busy combing through the writing for an answer that was never in it. You can't lift authorship off the page like a fingerprint. It's a claim made by the person willing to say, "I wrote this."

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2025
Incentives

Toyota Engineered Consequences

We praise Toyota's culture because it lets us pretend the magic was mindset. Toyota engineered consequences, and the culture showed up afterward.

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AI

Raising the Bar

A competent essay used to be evidence of something. Now it's evidence you can prompt a chatbot. The work didn't go away. It moved.

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Healthcare

The Denial Machine

One in five claims gets denied on the first pass. A system that says no to a fifth of everything is not making mistakes. It is doing what it was built to do.

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2016